East Pacific Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;453948
ABPZ20 KNHC 252322
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 25 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east-southeast of 
the Hawaiian Islands continues to move westward at about 15 mph.  
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system have persisted 
for much of the day, but they remain displaced to the northwest and 
north of the circulation center.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to remain conducive for some additional development during 
the next day or so, and only a slight increase in the organization 
of the system would result in the development of a tropical 
depression.  The low is forecast to move into the Central Pacific 
basin on Monday morning, and on Tuesday conditions are expected to 
become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop by midweek a few 
hundred miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  
Thereafter, some gradual development is possible through late this 
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 
mph, remaining a couple of hundred miles offshore of the coast of 
southern Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown


						

Expires:No;;463706
AXPZ20 KNHC 260405
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure of 1011 is centered near 13N138W continues to show 
some signs of organization. Latest satellite imagery shows 
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 
120 nm W semicircle of the low. Scattered moderate convection 
is within 180 nm NE quadrant of the low, and also within 30 nm 
of a line from 15N131W to 16N135W. A scatterometer pass from Sun
afternoon revealed fresh to strong winds on the north side of 
the low. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8-11 ft.
Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for 
some additional development during the next day or so, and only a
slight increase in the organization of the system would result 
in the development of a tropical depression. The low is forecast 
to move into the Central Pacific basin on Mon morning, and on Tue
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further 
development. This system has a high chance of development within 
the next 48 hours. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis 94W from 03N to 16N, moving westward
at about 16 kt.20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen west of the wave from 09N to 13N between 95W 
and 98W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 114W from 03N to 17N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms 
are noted from 13N to 14N between 112W-114W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 123W from 03N to 15N, moving 
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
within 180 nm either side of the wave from 11N to 13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 14N98W. It continues at 14N109W to low pressure near 
13N112W and to 10N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to 
14N136W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Special 
Features and Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the
trough between 95W-97W. Scattered moderate convection is seen
05N to 09N between 80W-86W, within 60 nm north of the trough 
between 119W-124W and also within 60 nm north of the ITCZ
between 124W-127W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of
the area is supporting moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are estimated to be 6 ft. Gentle 
to moderate winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere off 
southern Mexico with a component of SW swell. Gentle NW winds 
prevail west of Baja California with moderate winds on the
southern tip of Baja along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Scatterometer
data from Sun afternoon showed gentle to moderate winds over the
northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue to pulse
throughout the week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail off the west coast of Baja California
through Tue. Expect winds to increase fresh to strong by Wed 
and continue through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are expected 
across the Gulf of California for the rest of the week. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Tue night. By mid-
week, an of low pressure is forecast to develop a few hundred 
miles south or southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, 
some gradual development is possible through late this week while
the system moves in a generally west- northwestward direction.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh NE
winds over the Papagayo region with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to 
fresh SW to W winds are present south of the monsoon trough, 
west of Panama and Colombia, with seas 8 ft due to a long- 
period SW swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are 
noted,with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily due to the long-period SW
swell. The earlier observed scattered moderate to strong showers
and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia and Panama have diminished 
both in the intensity and in coverage during the past few hours.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night in the
Papagayo region through tonight and will pulse moderate to 
locally fresh through midweek. Expect fresh SW winds south of the
monsoon trough within the waters offshore of Colombia and 
western Panama to persist through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds
are forecast elsewhere. Moderate southerly swell will continue 
to impact the waters west of Ecuador through Mon. Enhanced 
showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama 
and Costa Rica through Mon. By mid-week, an of low pressure is 
forecast to develop a few hundred miles south or southeast of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, some gradual development is 
possible through late this week while the system moves in a 
generally west-northwestward direction.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for information on the
1011 mb low pressure near 13N138W.

Fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present from the monsoon 
trough north to 26N and west of 129W, except elsewhere from 11N
to 18N W of 135W where higher seas of 7-9 ft are found due to a 
SE swell component. Elsewhere over the open waters, seas are 
mostly in the 4-6 ft range, except for slightly higher seas
reaching 7 ft south of the ITCZ between 128W and 136W. The ridge
will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly 
tranquil marine conditions expected north of the ITCZ through 
about mid-week.

$$
Aguirre


						
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