Expires:No;;100571
ABPZ20 KNHC 010504
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Wed Nov 30 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of 
the 2022 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance 
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2023. During 
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as 
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven


						

Expires:No;;568879
AXPZ20 KNHC 240917
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Pacific Significant Swell Event: A recent altimeter pass indicates
seas of 10 to 14 ft within a large area of fresh to strong trades
that covers mainly the waters from 10N to 24N W of 120W. The trades
and the high seas will persist through Sun. The next swell event,
with seas in excess of 12 ft, will reach the waters north of Punta
Eugenia by Sat afternoon, with seas of 12 to 15 ft forecast to 
dominate the waters north of 26N between 116W and 124W by Sat 
night. Seas will subside to less than 12 ft in this area Sun 
evening. Looking ahead, yet another NW to N swell event with seas
of 12 ft or greater may propagate south of 30N by the middle of 
next week behind a weakening cold front. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 
05N95W. The ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 03N120W to 01N140W.  
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N 
to 07N between 95W and 125W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California producing fresh to strong NW to N winds. Seas are 
8 to 11 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California. Fresh to strong
NW winds are in the central and southern Gulf of California
spreading farther south to the entrance of the Gulf. Scatterometer
data confirmed the presence of these winds. Seas are 3 to 5 ft 
there. Gentle to moderate NW winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are in the 
northern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft are noted within about 45 nm of the Mexican coast 
between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. Winds are mainly gentle 
elsewhere, along with 3 to 5 ft seas. Smoke from agricultural 
fires in Mexico and Central America may reduce visibility across 
portions of the offshore waters of SW Mexico, particularly in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec where the SAB Analysis shows a medium
concentration.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will remain in control of
the weather pattern across the region through the upcoming 
weekend. This is already producing an increase in winds across 
the offshore waters of Baja California. Expect fresh to locally 
strong NW to N winds through Sat night, with pulses of fresh to 
locally strong winds also over the southern Gulf of California 
and near Cabo Corrientes. NW swell of 8 to 11 ft offshore Baja 
California will linger through the end of the week. The next 
swell event will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sat 
afternoon with seas of 12 to 15 ft, decaying by the end of the 
weekend. Fresh to strong SW to W winds may develop in the 
northern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed due to an 
approaching and weakening cold front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A ridge N of the area continues to support fresh to strong NE to
E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters offshore 
Nicaragua, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds 
extend from the Gulf of Panama southward to near 05N, including 
near the Azuero Peninsula, along with 3 to 6 ft seas per an 
altimeter pass. Mainly light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas 
in mainly SW swell prevail elsewhere, with the exception of an 
area of moderate NE to E winds downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo 
from 07N to 12N between 89W and 94W. Smoke from agricultural 
fires over Central America is leading to some visibility 
restrictions offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo northward.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across 
the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua mainly at night 
through the next several days. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
can be expected over the Gulf of Panama through Fri night. Gentle
to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through
the forecast period. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern 
Central America may at times restrict visibility over adjacent 
waters. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see Special Features section above for details on a
significant swell event over the west-central waters.

Strong high pressure is building across the forecast waters,
supporting a large area of fresh to strong trades, mainly from 
around 10N to 24N between 120W and 140W. Seas are 10 to 14 ft 
across this area, in mixed NE wind waves and long-period NW to N
swell. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft are 
elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W, with gentle to 
moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed S and NW swell across 
the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build across the
forecast region, the aerial extent and strength of trade winds
will increase across the forecast waters. Expect fresh to strong
winds covering roughly the waters from 07N to 25N W of 115W by 
Fri evening. At the same time, fresh to strong NW to N winds are 
also expected across the offshore waters of Baja California, the 
southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. The area of
fresh to strong winds will diminish on Sun as the high pressure 
weakens some. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A cold front is forecast 
to enter the N waters on Tue, reaching as far south as 24N-25N on
Wed while weakening. 

$$
GR