Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
ABNT20 KNHC 021749

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Pasch


AXNT20 KNHC 021805

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.


A tropical wave is over western Africa, with axis near 11W, as 
observed on long-term satellite imagery. Latest and current 
satellite imagery shows increasing deep convection of the 
scattered moderate to strong type from 10N to 14N between 11W 
and 15W. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Convection ahead of 
it is expected to increase along and offshore the coast of 
Africa prior to its axis moving offshore that coast.

A tropical wave with axis along 36W from 04N to 17N is moving 
westward near 15 kt. This wave is moving through a surrounding 
stable atmospheric environment. Only isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are seen within 60 nm of the axis from 04N to 07N.

A tropical wave is crossing the Lesser Antilles with its axis 
along 61W from 06N to 19N. It is moving westward near 20 kt. 
This wave is surrounded by Saharan air, although not as much as 
in recent days, but enough to limit convection from developing 
near it. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen south 
of 14N between 60W and 62W.

A tropical wave with axis along 71W is moving westward at 20-25 
kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 17N to over 
the eastern section of the Dominican Republic and between 69W 
and 71W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms moving quickly 
westward are north of 15N between 71W and 75W. This activity 
likely to produce gusty winds.
The northern part of the axis of a far western Caribbean 
tropical wave is just east of Belize and is moving westward at 
10-15 kt. The 700 mb GFS model winds indicate a sharp northeast 
to southeast wind shift in the vicinity of this wave. The wave 
is situated to the east of a small upper-level low that is 
centered over the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Upper-level 
divergence east of the low in combination with deep atmospheric 
moisture in place is helping to aid in the development of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the 
northwestern Caribbean and over waters just offshore Belize. 
Similar activity is inland Belize and over the southeast part 
of the Yucatan Peninsula.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the W coast of Africa 
across Guinear near 11N16W and continues to 09N22W and to 
08N27W, where a scatterometer pass from this morning indicated 
that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to just east of 
the tropical wave along 36W and resumes just to the west of the 
same tropical wave near 37W. It continues to 04N42W and to near 
05N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical 
waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
within 120 nm north of the trough between 18W and 22W and within 
60 nm north of the trough between 22W and 24W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 
17W and 21W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 21W and 
28W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 20W and 24W and 
within 60 nm south of the trough between 25W and 28W.


Broad anticyclonic flow is present over the western part of the 
Gulf west of 93W, while an upper-level low is over the northern 
Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a 1017 mb high pressure 
center is located over the NE Gulf near 27N88W. The associated 
wind flow around it consists of gentle to moderate return flow 
west of 93W and generally light and variable winds east of 93W. 
Little change in the present weather pattern is expected through 
the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north 
of 28N between 86W and 89W. This activity is associated with an 
upper-level shear axis over the north-central Gulf. The activity 
is weakening with time. Other scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are lifting northward from the northwestern 
Caribbean Sea and through the Yucatan Channel to near 24N and 
between the western tip of Cuba and 88W. This activity is being 
steered northward by the southerly flow aloft that is occurring 
east of the aforementioned upper-level low. Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms are elsewhere east of 90W. The high pressure that 
is in place is forecast to maintain rather benign marine 
conditions across the region through Mon. 


Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave along 
71W and another one that is crossing the Lesser Antilles and 
into the far eastern Caribbean.

Plenty of atmospheric moisture and instability in place is 
allowing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to 
continue to develop over most of the western Caribbean west of 
80W and also south of 12N between the coast of Colombia and 80W.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over the Windward 

The combination of daytime heating, local sea breezes and 
available moisture should contribute to the formation of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles by 
late this afternoon.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the 
Colombian/Panamanian low is supporting fresh to strong trades 
across the south-central Caribbean. These winds are forecast to 
change little through the weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
trades will prevail for the next several days. 


Refer to the section above for details on a central Atlantic 
tropical wave and another one that is expected to move into the 
far eastern Atlantic in the short term.

In the upper-levels, an upper trough stretches from an elongated 
upper-level low near 28N53W southwestward to near 21N56W and to
the far northeastern Caribbean Sea. An upper-level anticyclone is 
noted near 27N68W. At the surface, the 1029 mb Bermuda-Azores 
high is centered near 34N40W with a ridge extending 
southwestward to the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trades 
are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge. The high 
pressure will continue across the area into early next week. Low 
pressure will develop Fri morning east of Jacksonville Florida 
and move east across the northern waters through Sun afternoon, 
bringing some gusty winds as well as some showers and 

The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS shows less African dust, than 
observed in previous days, over some of the waters between the W 
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles.


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