Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
ABNT20 KNHC 302332

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

Forecaster Beven


AXNT20 KNHC 102354

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2320 UTC.



As of 10/2100 UTC, the cold front stretches across the Gulf from 
the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W to a 1012 mb low near 26N95W to 
the coast of Mexico near 22N97W. Behind the front, strong to gale 
force NW to N winds are expected tonight by 0000 UTC, S of 23N 
between 96W-92W. Seas will range between 8 to 11 ft. Expect this 
gale force event to be ongoing until 12/0000 UTC. See the latest 
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center 
under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website for further details.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W to 01N30W. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 100 nm of the monsoon trough between 14W-29W.


See the Special Features section in regards to the developing
gale event. 

Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the front from 26N-29N 
between 92W-94W. Scattered showers are also seen in the eastern 
Gulf. Otherwise, ridging extends across the eastern Gulf. Latest 
scatterometer data depicts depict fresh to strong southerly winds 
in the Bay of Campeche, with gentle to moderate southerly winds in
the northern Gulf ahead of the front. 

The cold front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay 
of Campeche by Wednesday morning, then stall from Tampa Bay to 
the Bay of Campeche by Thursday morning. Gale force NW to N winds
are expected west of the front along the coast of Mexico tonight 
through Wednesday evening. 


Deep ridging covers the Caribbean and is inhibiting deep 
convection. Showers are seen in the SW Caribbean S of 13N between 
78W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen moving offshore of 
Jamaica. Otherwise, low-topped showers are seen moving across the
Lesser Antilles into Puerto Rico. Latest scatterometer data 
depicts strong trades north of Colombia, with fresh to strong 
trades throughout the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to 
moderate trades are seen in the NW Caribbean. 

Strong high pressure in the west-central Atlantic will dominate 
the region through Wed. Expect building seas and fresh to strong 
winds across the central and eastern Caribbean and Tropical N 
Atlantic waters through mid-week. Winds and seas will gradually 
subside Thu and Fri as the high pressure N of the area shifts 


A stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N41W and 
extends westward to 30N57W with a trough extending from that point
to 22N61W. Scattered showers are seen within 170 nm of the front.
Isolated thunderstorms are also seen within 20-200 nm of the 
Leeward Islands. High pressure continues to dominate the eastern 
Atlantic, anchored by a 1043 mb high near 41N41W. Latest 
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds across 
the central Atlantic. 

Strong high pressure in the west-central Atlantic will support a 
large area of fresh easterly winds to the east of the Bahamas 
through this evening. A cold front will move off the southeast 
U.S. coast on Wednesday, extend from 30N70W to central Florida 
Thursday morning and stall thereafter before transitioning to a 
warm front on Friday. 


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