Expires:No;;901554
ABNT20 KNHC 111345
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
945 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Outlook issued to update the system in the eastern Tropical 
Atlantic west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands (AL93).

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Francine, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a couple hundred 
miles off the coast of Louisiana. 

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Updated: Recent satellite-wind data indicates that the system 
located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, 
showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, 
and if these trends continue, advisories will be issued on a 
tropical depression later this morning. The system is moving to the 
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph and will be moving into the central 
Tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): 
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical 
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity.  Environmental conditions appear marginally 
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two 
while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central 
tropical Atlantic.  The disturbance is expected to reach an area of 
stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances 
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing an 
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry 
air near the system is expected to limit additional development over 
the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even 
less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly 
west-northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along 
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern 
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development 
is possible during the early part of next week as the system 
meanders over the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake


						

Expires:No;;891673
AXNT20 KNHC 110907
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Sep 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Francine is centered near 27.0N 93.8W at 11/0900 UTC
or 200 nm ENE of mouth of The Rio Grande, moving NE at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are 
currently around 27 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is 
noted within within 180 nm in the NE quadrant, 150 nm in the E and
S quadrants, and 75 nm in the W quadrant. A faster northeastward 
motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated to make 
landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon or 
evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward 
across Mississippi on Thu and Thu night. Some additional
strengthening is expected this morning. Francine is expected to 
weaken quickly after it moves inland. Francine is expected to 
bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban 
flooding across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern 
Alabama and northern Florida through Thu night. Flash and urban 
flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower 
Mississippi Valley tonight into Fri morning. Swells generated by
Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf
Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest 
Francine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93): A tropical wave
over the eastern tropical Atlantic near 25W is producing a large 
but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms from near the 
Cabo Verde Islands extending southwestward for several hundred
nautical miles. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N 
to 18N between 23W and 28W. Associated winds are up to 20 kt with
seas of 6 to 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression 
will likely form during the latter part of this week while the 
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a medium
chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours, and a 
high chance through seven days. Please refer to the latest NHC 
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France is forecasting gale
force winds off the Moroccan coast near Agadir through 12/03 UTC 
with accompanying seas of 7 to 10 ft likely. Refer to the Meteo- 
France High Seas Forecast listed on the website 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on a tropical
wave associated with Invest AL93.

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea near 64W/65W 
from 20N southward to eastern Venezuela, moving westward around 15
kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 21N 
between 61W and 66W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea near 82W from 20N
southward over western Panama, moving westward at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the wave axis
between Cuba and Jamaica, and from 11N to 13N between 82W and 85W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa from 15N17W to
low pressure, AL93, near 15.5N25.5W to 11N35W to low pressure,
AL92, near 15N44W to low pressure near 15N52W to 14N58W. No ITCZ
is evident in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 28W 
and 33W, from 07N to 12N between 32W and 42W, and from 10N to 13N 
between 50W and 59W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on 
Hurricane Francine in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

A persistent stationary front stretches westward from near Tampa
Bay, Florida to 28N90W. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary across the northern
Gulf, north of 25N and east of 90W. Outside of the direct 
influence of Francine, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 2 to 5
ft seas prevail east of 89W, with moderate to fresh southerly
winds and 4 to 7 ft seas west of 89W, except gentle winds south of
22N.

For the forecast, Francine will move to 28.5N 92.3W this 
afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 30.6N 
90.8W Thu morning, move farther inland and weaken to a tropical 
depression near 33.0N 90.1W Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, winds 
and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu afternoon through Fri, 
however westerly swell will impact the eastern Gulf Wed through 
Thu night. High pressure will become established over the north-
central Gulf during the weekend, with rather tranquil conditions 
expected throughout.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds are offshore eastern Honduras and near the
Windward Passage, with mainly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere.
Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NW Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a tropical wave extending from just south of 
western Cuba to western Panama will move across the remainder of 
the basin through Fri. Another tropical wave in the E Caribbean 
will move across the basin through the next few days. Fresh winds 
will pulse offshore eastern Honduras while moderate to fresh winds
pulse in the south-central Caribbean. Mainly gentle moderate 
trades will prevail otherwise. Slight to moderate seas will 
prevail across the basin for the next few days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Invest 
Area (AL93) in the eastern Atlantic.

A nearly stationary front extends from near Bermuda to Cape 
Canaveral, Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas
are noted north of this boundary. Numerous moderate convection is
noted within 240 nm SE of the front between 65W and 74W.
Additional activity is over the central and western Bahamas due 
to a mid to upper level trough.

A weak 1009 mb low pressure area, Invest AL92, is embedded in the
monsoon trough near 15N44W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 14N to 17N between 42W and 47W. Earlier scatterometer 
data showed fresh to strong winds within 150 nm in the N quadrant 
while an altimeter pass measured 7 to 9 ft seas. Another weak low 
pressure area at 1010 mb is embedded in the monsoon trough near 
15N52W with fresh to strong winds within 75 nm in the NE quadrant 
per a scatterometer pass, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. A low pressure 
area is located well to the north near 31N52W with a trough from 
the low to 26N55W, with another trough from 31N45W to 27N49W, 
which are helping to disrupt the Azores high and ridging. 
Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N within 75 nm of the 
eastern trough. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
prevail under this pattern across the remainder of the waters 
west of 40W. To the east of 40W, moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 
8 ft seas prevail, with locally strong winds across Canary Island 
channels.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 
near Bermuda southwestward to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh 
to locally strong northeast to east winds are north of the front 
along with seas to around 8 ft. Widely scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are north of 25N and west of 60W. The front will 
linger through tonight, then lifting back north as a warm front 
Thu and Thu night. The front may drop south to around 31N again 
this weekend with the potential for higher winds and seas near and
north of it. Elsewhere over the remainder Southwest North 
Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate with 
slight to moderate seas. 

$$
Lewitsky