Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;365127
ABNT20 KNHC 161744
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of 
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low 
pressure area.  This system will move little today and tonight, and 
little if any development is expected during that time due to 
interaction with land.  However, the system should begin to move 
northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western 
Gulf of Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft 
is scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday.  Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central 
America and southern Mexico during the next few days.  Heavy rains 
should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on 
Friday.  Please consult products from your local meteorological 
service for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


						

Expires:No;;365645
AXNT20 KNHC 161806
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jun 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of 
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low 
pressure area. Moderate NW-N winds are noted within 60 nm of the 
coast of Veracruz where seas are 2 to 4 ft. This system will move
little during the next day or so, and little if any development 
is expected during that time due to interaction with land. 
The broad disturbance should begin to move northward on Thu, and 
a tropical depression is likely to form by late Thu or on Fri when
the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of 
development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy 
rains could also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf 
Coast on Fri. Please consult products from your local 
meteorological service for more information. This area has a high 
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hrs and five 
days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued 
by the NWS National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details on this disturbance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 35W from 17N 
southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 11N between 31W and 37W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 55W from 
18N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 52W and 58W.

A Caribbean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 78W from 18N near
Jamaica southward across Panama, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No 
convection is noted near the tropical wave at this time; a few
isolated thunderstorms observed north of Jamaica this morning are
dissipating.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N16W 
to 09N23W. Segments of the ITCZ are analyzed from 09N23W to 05N31W,
then from 03N36W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted inland over French Guiana.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a broad
low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche. 

A surface trough is seen over the central gulf runs northeastward
from 24N92W to 28N89W. Aided by upper-level divergent flow, 
scattered moderate convection is occurring in the central Gulf from
22N to 28N between 85W and 94W. A cold front extends westward 
from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to the Louisiana coast near 
30N89W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of the front from 
30N83W to 29N88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the
Florida Panhandle and NE Gulf from 29N to 31N between 82W and 
87W. Elsewhere, an area of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is located from the western coast of Cuba north to 24N
between 82W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
south of 21N and east of 93W in the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to 
moderate S to SE winds are noted in the eastern Gulf, with mainly 
moderate N to NE winds in the western Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft
through the basin.

For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure in the Bay of 
Campeche will move little during the next day or so. This broad 
disturbance should begin to move northward on Thu, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by late Thu or on Fri when the low 
moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. This area has a high 
chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for details. 

The latest scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh tradewinds 
across the central Caribbean with seas at 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to 
moderate E to ESE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are detected over 
the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N
to the southern coast of Cuba between 81W and 84W. Scattered 
moderate convection is also occurring over the southeastern 
Caribbean near the coast of Venezuela.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin 
combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia 
will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central 
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the upcoming weekend. 
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to 
gentle south of 11N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of tropical waves are moving westward between the west
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical 
Waves section above for details. 

A ridge dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area anchored by 
the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the area. Fresh to 
locally strong S winds are occurring north of 29N between 70W and
73W where scattered moderate convection is occurring, supported 
by a mid-level trough. Seas in this same area are 7 to 10 ft. 
Moderate to fresh trades dominate south of 22N with seas at 6 to 
8 ft. Gentle to moderate trades are seen elsewhere with seas at 3 
to 5 ft. An exception is from 20N to 25N, south of the Canary 
Islands, between the west coast of Africa and 28W where fresh to 
locally strong N-NE winds persists due to a locally tight pressure
gradient. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this area.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure across the
area will prevail across 26N through mid-week before retreating 
eastward through the end of the week. Winds will be fresh to 
strong north of 28N through midweek as a pair of cold fronts pass
north of the area. 

$$
Mahoney/Chan


						
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