Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;678984
ABNT20 KNHC 302312
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. 

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical 
Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, 
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions 
warrant.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


						

Expires:No;;987162
AXNT20 KNHC 190441
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0435 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from 
near 31N76W to inland central Florida will progress eastward 
across the western Atlantic for the next few days. Southwest winds
ahead of the front and northwest winds behind are forecast to 
reach near-gale to gale-force north of 29N between 72W and 77W by
late tonight into early on Tue. Seas with these winds will be in 
the range of 9 to 12 ft. These near-gale to gale-force winds and 
very rough seas will shift eastward with the cold front to north 
of 29N between 62W and 67W by early Tue afternoon. As this front 
weakens Tue afternoon and evening, both winds and seas should 
gradually subside.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and 
plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas 
Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by 
the National Hurricane Center, at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

THe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 01N26W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N26W to 00N37W and to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ, west of 17W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Florida to near Tampico, Mexico.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present north
of 24N, east of 89W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are occurring
behind the frontal boundary based on recent scatterometer
satellite data and surface observations. Seas in these waters are
6-11 ft, with the highest seas found near 25N96W. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will exit the
basin on Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas behind
the front will continue through Tue morning. Low pressure is 
forecast to develop over the NW Gulf near the coast on Thu, then 
track east- northeast toward the NE Gulf by Fri pushing a cold 
front across the basin. The low is expected to move inland 
northern Florida late on Fri. This next frontal system will bring 
increasing winds and seas to the affected waters, as well as 
widespread showers and thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic
extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
northern South America sustain fresh to strong easterly trade
winds across the central and southeastern Caribbean waters. Seas 
in the areas described are 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central 
Caribbean through Tue. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate 
to fresh speeds as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic.
This front will push southward across the northwest Caribbean 
Tue, then reach eastern Cuba on Wed while dissipating. Pulsing 
fresh to strong winds will continue near the coast of Colombia, 
mainly at night, through the forecast period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details 
about the gale warning over the western Atlantic. 

A cold front extends from 31N75W to central Florida. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is evident north of 26N 
and west of 70W. Strong to near gale-force NW winds and seas of 
5-8 ft are noted behind the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong S-SW
winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring south of the frontal
boundary to 26N and west of 63W. 

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb
high pressure system located near 28N39W. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and
western Africa support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds
south of 26N and seas of 6-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are present in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida Tue morning, from near 
Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue afternoon, then weaken as it
reaches from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba by Wed morning. Fresh to
strong winds and rough seas are expected ahead and behind the 
front. Gale force winds are expected tonight and Tue, mainly for 
the waters north of 27N. Weak low pressure may form along the 
front near 30N56W on Thu morning, with the front reaching northern
Hispaniola. High pressure in its wake will quickly shift eastward
through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds 
to develop over the western half of the forecast waters as low 
pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to over 
northern Florida and to north of the area Sat and Sat night. The 
fresh to strong southerly winds will expand in coverage as they 
shift eastward ahead of a cold front that will trail from the low 
over the western waters.

$$
Delgado


						
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