Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;663787
ABNT20 KNHC 302332
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

$$
Forecaster Beven



						

Expires:No;;616961
AXNT20 KNHC 272317
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Africa near 12N17W to
07N22W. The Intertropical convergence zone axis continues from
07N122W to along the equator between 30W and 40W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator
to 02N between 21W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from the equator to 04N between 37W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low pressure is centered near 28N85W with a trailing
cold front extending SW through 21N90W to the coast of Mexico near
19N97W, and a warm front extending eastward to near Tampa Bay,
Florida. Scattered showers are occurring SE of the front to the E
of 87W in the SE Gulf to across the Straits of Florida, while
earlier thunderstorms have dissipated. An area of fresh to strong
winds were noted on the NW side of the low, with mainly moderate
winds elsewhere behind the front. Moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds were noted ahead of the front. 

The low will track eastward through tonight, then E-SE, reaching 
S Florida by early Tue while the front sags S and slowly 
dissipates. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue 
night, weakening by the time it reaches the SE Gulf Wed night 
ahead of a third front, which may impact the basin by the end of 
the week and into the weekend. That front is expected to be 
followed by fresh to strong northerly winds, and building seas of 
7-11 ft, highest over the western Gulf

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough was analyzed from near Puerto Rico to near the
Guajira Peninsula. Scattered showers were noted over SE Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands. Elsewhere across the basin, no
significant surface features were noted with only the occasional
area of isolated showers. 

The trough is forecast to gradually dissipate through Tue night.
Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure is forecast to prevail 
across the region, which will maintain rather quiet conditions 
over the forecast waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate
winds. The except will be fresh winds near the coast of Colombia 
during the afternoons and night time hours through Wed, increasing
to fresh to strong speeds Thu night through Fri night and 
continuing into the early part of the weekend. Seas will build to
8-11 ft in the SW Caribbean as a result of those increasing winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from near 31N64W to the central Bahamas
with showers noted in the vicinity of the front. This front will 
slowly move E while dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate winds
were noted over the offshore waters along with fairly low seas. 

Over the eastern Atlantic, a dissipating stationary front was
noted from near 31N36W to 20N58W with scattered showers and
thunderstorms noted N of 24N and within 120 nm E of the front.
Weak 1017 mb high pressure was analyzed between these two frontal
boundaries.

Another cold front will move into the waters E of Florida portion
tonight, eventually stalling along 26N by mid-week and then 
lifting northward. Fresh to strong winds will accompany this next
front, along with building seas. Low pressure will move across 
northern Florida Wed, emerge off the coast Wed night, then track E
across the area through Thu night. Fresh to near gale force winds
are forecast to accompany the low. A weak high pressure ridge 
will nose SW into the area Fri and Fri night as a stationary front
forms along the northeast Florida coast. 

$$
Lewitsky


						
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