Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;904321
ABNT20 KNHC 191708
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


						

Expires:No;;903526
AXNT20 KNHC 191644
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1244 PM EDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 17N 
southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong monsoon trough 
rainshowers are from 05N to 10N from 30W eastward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/45W from 20N 
southward. Rainshowers are possible within 300 nm on either side 
of the wave.

One Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from the Mona Passage to
Venezuela, along 67W/68W from 19N southward. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N to 16N
between 63W and 67W. 

A second Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W from 21N 
southward, in the western Caribbean Sea. Persistent upper level 
cyclonic wind flow remains in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. 
Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the waters from 14N northward
from 73W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 13N17W, to 10N20W, to 09N23W, and to 09N43W. The ITCZ is 
along 07N46W to 06N53W, near the coast of French Guiana. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 07N to
12N between 51W and 55W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are 
elsewhere, mostly from 03N to 13N, from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SE half of the Gulf of
Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the
Yucatan Channel. An upper level inverted trough is in central
Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the north central
Gulf, between the Florida Panhandle and south central
Louisiana. Isolated moderate rainshowers are along the Florida
west coast from 27N85W southward and eastward into the Straits of
Florida. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere south of 26N.

A surface ridge is along 28N/29N at 75W in the Atlantic Ocean,
crossing Florida along 28N/29N, reaching the north central Gulf
waters, and beyond the middle Texas Gulf coast.

A surface trough will develop along the western Yucatan Peninsula
during the late afternoons, and then drift westward across the 
southwest Gulf waters during the overnight hours. The surface
trough will be accompanied by a fresh east to southeast wind 
shift. The trough will dissipate along 96W during the late 
mornings. An east to west ridge will extend across the Gulf 
waters between 26N and 27N accompanied by gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Yucatan
Channel. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean
Sea from 15N northward from Jamaica. Isolated moderate rainshowers
cover the waters from 14N northward from 73W westward.

An upper level inverted trough extends from Hispaniola into the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 07N to 10N between 78W and 81W, around
Panama.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/08N from 74W in Colombia westward
beyond at least 88W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. 

Strong nocturnal easterly trade winds are expected along the
northwest coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through 
the middle of the week, with the strong winds expanding as far 
north as 15.5N on Monday night, and with the sea heights building
to 10 feet. Strong east trade winds are forecast along the south 
coast of Hispaniola tonight. A tropical wave along 84W/85W will 
continue across the western Caribbean Sea today. A second 
tropical wave along 67W/68W will continue westward, passing 
through the central Caribbean Sea early this week. A third 
tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean will reach 55W on
Monday night, and reach the eastern Caribbean Sea during the 
middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is just to the north of
the NW Bahamas. The cyclonic center is part of the larger-scale
area of cyclonic wind flow that has been in the western part of
the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of Florida during the last week
or so. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from Cuba northward from
76W westward.

An upper level trough passes through 32N59W to 27N70W. A surface
trough is along 33N49W 29N56W. A second surface trough is along
26N68W 23N70W 20N71W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the line that
passes through 32N51W 28N57W 26N68W 23N70W. 

A surface trough is along 46W/47W from 20N to 29N. Isolated
moderate rainshowers cover the waters from 20N northward between
40W and 46W.

A surface ridge will dominate the forecast waters during the
next several days. A broad surface trough extending from 25N68W
to 20N71W will continue westward, passing through the Bahamas on 
Monday and on Tuesday. Light to gentle winds are expected near 
the trough, and moderate to fresh trades are forecast south of 
23N, except becoming locally strong along the north coast of 
Hispaniola during the late afternoon into the evening hours. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT


						
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