Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;281623
ABNT20 KNHC 231749
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
reformed Tropical Depression Harvey, located in the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across
the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is associated
with a trough of low pressure.  Any development of this system
during the next few days should be slow to occur while it drifts
northward over Florida and the adjacent waters.  Thereafter, some
tropical or subtropical development is possible over the weekend
when the system begins to move northeastward over the western
Atlantic before it merges with a front.  Regardless of development,
very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of the
Florida peninsula during the next few days.  Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header
WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$


Forecaster Blake


						

Expires:No;;281657
AXNT20 KNHC 231751
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of regenerated Tropical Depression Harvey at 23/1800 
UTC is near 21.5N 92.5W, or about 465 nm to the SSE of Port 
Oconnor in Texas, or about 405 nm to the SE of Port Mansfield in 
Texas. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts 
to 40 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.
Harvey is stationary. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES about Tropical 
Depression Harvey are being issued under the WMO header WTNT34 
KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Tropical Depression Harvey are being 
issued under the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and under the AWIPS 
header MIATCMAT4. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate 
to isolated strong from the coast of Mexico in the SW corner of 
the Gulf of Mexico to 27N between 89W and 94W. isolated moderate 
in the coastal plains of Belize from 17N to the NE corner of the 
Yucatan Peninsula.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21N35W 10N39W, moving 
westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered 
moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 13N between 35W and 41W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 19N southward to 
the Colombia/Panama border. The wave is cutting through the 
eastern sections of Jamaica, moving westward 10 knots. 
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from the coasts of 
Panama and Costa Rica to 11N between 79W and 82W. scattered 
moderate to isolated strong is in broad cyclonic wind flow, and 
from 11N to 15N in eastern Honduras between 80W and 84W, and 
elsewhere from 12N southward between 75W and Nicaragua. isolated 
moderate from 15N to 17N between 73W and 78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea 
near 11N15W, to 10N17W, 17N25W, 17N36W, and 06N50W. Convective 
precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 09N to 13N 
between 22W and 24W. widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong elsewhere from 06N to 15N between 14W and 41W. isolated 
moderate from 07N to 10N between 41W and 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Harvey is in the SW corner of the Gulf of 
Mexico. The forecast moves Harvey to the Texas coast, as a 
Tropical Storm, between 48 hours and 72 hours. Please read the 
special bulletins, the forecast/advisory MIATCMAT4 or the public 
advisory MIATCPAT4, for more details. Convective precipitation: 
scattered moderate to isolated strong from the coast of Mexico 
in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to 27N between 89W and 
94W. isolated moderate in the coastal plains of Belize from 17N 
to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A surface trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 30N80W, 
across Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, to 24N83W in the SE 
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1012 mb low pressure center is 
along the trough near 25N82W. The forecast for the trough and 
low pressure center is to maintain their positions near Florida, 
surrounded by rainshowers during the next few days. Convective 
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N 
near Cuba to 27N in south Florida between 75W and the Bahamas 
and 81W in south Florida.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM 
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N 
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none. 

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE 
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: heavy rain in Pearland. rain and thunder at the Ellington 
Field in the Houston metropolitan area. rain and thunder have 
ended for the moment in Galveston. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the 
Mobile metropolitan area. rain and thunder near Dothan. FLORIDA: 
rain and drizzle in Mary Esther. towering cumulus clouds at the 
NAS in Key West.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 
17N southward between 82W in the SW corner of the area, and 64W 
along the coast of Venezuela.

Upper level NE wind flow covers the area that is to the west of 
the line that runs from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua.
This NE wind flow is part of larger-scale anticyclonic wind flow 
that also is present in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 
23/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.83 in 
Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.67 in Merida in Mexico, 0.18 in 
Guadeloupe, 0.07 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and and 0.04 in 
Trinidad.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the area. 
Comparatively drier air in subsidence also spans the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR.
for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus 
clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: 
VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will 
consist of N-to-NE wind flow across Hispaniola, that is moving 
around a Bahamas anticyclonic circulation center. Day two will 
consist of N wind flow, moving around an eastern Caribbean Sea 
cyclonic circulation center. Day two will consist of 
anticyclonic wind flow at the start of day one. An inverted 
trough eventually develops early on day one, and that trough 
continues across Hispaniola for the rest of day one, and during 
all of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE 
wind flow will move across the area, with at least one inverted 
trough mixed into the larger-scale wind flow, for each day of 
the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N60W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N 
northward between 52W and 74W. Convective precipitation: 
scattered moderate to strong from 22N to 24N between 55W and 
57W. isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 23N 
northward between 53W and 70W.

An upper level trough extends from a 29N32W cyclonic circulation 
center, to 20N38W, to a 16N47W cyclonic circulation center. An 
upper level inverted trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow from 
10N to 18N between 54W and 60W. 

A surface trough is along 25N55W 18N57W 11N60W. Convective 
precipitation: rainshowers from 10N to 18N between 55W and 58W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that 
is near 34N48W, through 32N56W, to 29N68W, to the NW Bahamas.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt


						
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