Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
ABNT20 KNHC 302336

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

Forecaster Beven


AXNT20 KNHC 200526

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic continues to build 
westward across the Caribbean, which will tighten the pressure 
gradient over the coast of Colombia. This will result in gale- 
force winds pulsing each night across this area and south-central 
Caribbean through Sun. A gale is presently in effect until 
20/1500 UTC within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia with seas to 12 
ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under 
AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website, for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 09N13W to 02N18W. 
The ITCZ continues from this point to 02S25W to the coast of 
South America near 05S38W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 01N-06N between 02W-08W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 01S-05S between 09W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is
also from 04N-02S between 24W-34W. 


At 20/0300 UTC, a 1008 mb low is centered near Houston Texas at
29N84W. A cold front extends S from the low to NW Mexico near
25N97W. A warm front extends E from the low to the Florida
Panhandle near 31N87W to Daytona Beach Florida near 29N81W.
Satellite imagery shows overcast stratus clouds and fog W of the
cold front and N of the warm front. Radar imagery shows scattered
showers over N Florida. 10-20 kt southerly winds are over most of
the Gulf of Mexico E of the cold front. 

The cold front will move E tonight and reach from SE Louisiana to
Veracruz, Mexico on Wed afternoon where it will stall before 
lifting north again as a warm front through Thu evening. Looking 
ahead, another cold front should move off the Texas coast by Sat 
afternoon reaching from the Florida Big Bend to the western Bay of
Campeche by Sun evening. 


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more 
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central 
Caribbean waters near Colombia.
Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicated 
fresh to strong easterly trade winds prevail over much of the 
basin, with strongest winds just north of Colombia. Scattered 
quick moving showers are moving with the trades over the basin. 
Dry air in the mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere continues to
dominate the region.

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong 
trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean and north of 
Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through Sun 
night. N to NE swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the 
Windward and Leeward Islands on Thu and continue through the 


A frontal system extends from the central Atlantic near 31N48W to
27N70W to 29N78W. A warm front continues to Daytona Florida near
29N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm N of the front. A 1022
mb high is also over the central Atlantic near 24N45W. A surface 
trough is over the E Atlantic from 26N32W to 21N31W. 

Over the W Atlantic, the portion of the front W of 75W will lift 
N of the area as a warm front through early Wed, while the 
portion east of 75W will dissipate over the SE waters Wed night. 
Fresh to strong winds associated with the front will continue to 
affect the NW waters through Wed evening. Surface high pressure 
will become established across the region on Thu and will prevail 
through the weekend. 
For additional information please visit


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