Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
ABNT20 KNHC 212322

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Brennan


AXNT20 KNHC 220004

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W from 05N-21N, 
moving west at 10-15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows 
moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment. 
Scattered showers are present over the Windward Islands from 10N- 
15N between 57W-65W. 

A Central America/EPAC tropical wave extends its axis along is 
along 87W and south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. The wave 
corresponds with a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. 
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N15W 
to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 08N28W, then from
08N32W to 07N41W, then resumes near 07N44W to 05N53W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either sides of the 
ITCZ between 22W-40W. 


A cold front is over the Gulf waters extending from 27N82W to a 
1016 mb low near 26N95W. A stationary front extends southward from
the low to 20N97W. A pre-frontal trough is over the SW Gulf from 
21N95W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of
93W. 20-30 kt N winds are NW of the fronts. The remainder of the 
Gulf has 10-15 kt easterly winds with mostly fair weather. 

The surface low will persist over the NW Gulf through Tue with
associated frontal systems. 


Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above for details.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N from 
Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 76W. The tropical wave along
85W is also interacting with the monsoon trough. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean 
from 08N-11N between 80W-83W. Farther east, Total Precipitable 
Water imagery shows high moisture content over northeastern 
Venezuela and the extreme southeastern Caribbean. Scattered
moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 61W-68W. 

Upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern coast of 
Colombia and the SW Caribbean.  


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W to N Florida near
27N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. To the
east, a surface trough is from 26N59W to 22N61W.

Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over
the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W, supporting the cold front. 
An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 
28N54W. Upper level diffluence E of the low center is producing 
scattered moderate convection from 22N-34N between 49W-53W. 

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