Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
ABNT20 KNHC 302336

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  Routine issuance of the
Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019.  During the
off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions warrant.

Forecaster Beven


AXNT20 KNHC 221710

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N13W
to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 00N26W to the coast 
of Brazil near 02S45W. Isolated moderate convection is within 300
nm N and within 180 nm S of the ITCZ between 17W and the coast of
South America. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-06N
between 05W-16W.


A 1023 mb high is centered over the Florida Panhandle west of
Tallahassee. As a result, fair weather covers the entire Gulf of
Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NE Gulf, with fresh
SE winds over portions of the SW Gulf.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through 
midweek before retreating eastward. This will enable a cold front 
to move into the NW Gulf on Thu, pushing across the basin through 
Fri night.


Upper-level zonal westerly flow covers the Caribbean. Moderate 
trade winds cover much of the basin, except for fresh to strong 
in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen in the vicinity of the
Cayman Islands and also near the north coast of Panama. Typical 
isolated showers are noted along the sea breezes of portions of 
the Greater Antilles, with relatively quiet weather elsewhere.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain moderate to
fresh trade winds across the south central and eastern Caribbean 
into Tue. The trade winds will slowly diminish thereafter as the 
high pressure dissipates. Looking ahead, a cold front may move 
into the northwest Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico by the end of
the week into next weekend.


In the western Atlantic, a stationary front enters the waters 
near 32N69W to 26.5N72W to the central Bahamas near 23N75W.
Upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered moderate convection
along and within 150 nm east of the front from 25N-31N. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 21N-25N between 68W- 
76W. In the central Atlantic, a 1012 mb low is near 25N50W. This 
is a cold core vertically stacked low, and the low is stronger in 
the mid to upper levels than it is at the surface. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen in the NE quadrant of the low from 
24N-31N between 42W-50W. Due to the pressure gradient between the 
1012 mb low and a 1034 mb high near 41N49W, winds near 25 kt are 
seen on the latest ASCAT pass north of 27N between 48W-58W.

The stationary front from 32N69W to the central Bahamas will 
dissipate through early Tue, with remnants lingering through mid 
week. Looking ahead, the next cold front may move off northeast 
Florida by the end of the week into next weekend. Fresh NE swell 
will move into the waters north of the Leeward Islands tonight.

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