East Pacific Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;904699
ABPZ20 KNHC 191713
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


						

Expires:No;;899660
AXPZ20 KNHC 191500
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1411 UTC Sun Aug 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W N of 05N, moving W 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is noted from 04N to 10N between 82W and 87W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 05N to 17N, moving
W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 06N to 08N between 104W and 110W and from 12N to 
16N between 100W and 108W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 125W from 05N to 18N, moving
W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 116W and 127W.
   
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 08N100W to 11N118W to 
10N124W. The ITCZ resumes from 09N126W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 02N
east of 81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to
08N between 93W and 103W. Scattered moderate convection was noted
from 08N to 10N between 130W and 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Surface ridging enters the forecast waters near 30N127W and 
extends SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature will 
support gentle to moderate NW winds through Tue. Low pres will 
erode the N side of the ridge during the middle of next week,
which will help to decrease winds to light to gentle.

Surface troughing over the Baja Peninsula will maintain a light
wind regime over the Gulf of California through the middle of 
this week.

Strong N to NE gap winds will start over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Tue night, then wind down Thu night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough will hover near 09N during the next few days.
Winds on both sides of the trough axis will generally be light 
to moderate. The only exception is over the Gulf of Papagayo, 
where winds will pulse to between moderate and fresh each night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Lane continues to moved further from the area. Tropical
storm winds have shifted west of the forecast waters. Fresh to
strong winds continue over the far western waters from 10N to 20N
and west of 135W, with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range. Winds and 
seas over this area will decrease over the next 24 hours, and 
fall below advisory criteria Monday.

Outside of the area influenced by Hurricane Lane, the pressure 
gradient between ridging across the northern waters and the ITCZ 
will support gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas in mixed 
swell N of the ITCZ and W of 120W through the middle of this 
week.
  
$$
AL


						
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