East Pacific Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;895072
ABPZ20 KNHC 051541
TWOEP 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 AM PST Sat Jan 5 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure system centered
about 1100 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become less organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions have become unfavorable and tropical or
subtropical cyclone development is not anticipated. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. This is the last Special
Tropical Weather Outlook that will be issued on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May
15, 2019.  During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and are
available on the web at
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


						

Expires:No;;792810
AXPZ20 KNHC 230932
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING... 

A strong cold front entering the NW Gulf of Mexico later this 
morning will reach the isthmus of Tehuantepec this evening. 
Northerly winds behind the front will funnel into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, with winds reaching gale force tonight. Seas will 
rapidly build to 15-16 ft. Minimal gale force winds will then 
prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for 
further details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N76W to 09N90W. The ITCZ extends 
from 05N92W to 03N106W to 05N125W then resumes from 05N129W to 
04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 
120 nm north of the axis between 106W and 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between a broad ridge NW of the area and a 
trough over western Mexico is supporting fresh NW to N winds in 
the Gulf of California, with scatterometer data showing strong 
gap winds west of Baja peninsula from winds funneling through 
passes of the Baja peninsula. Winds and seas associated with 
these gap winds will subside tonight. Moderate NE winds will 
dominate the offshores of Baja Thu and Fri then become gentle 
through Sat.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: A strong cold front moving through the Gulf 
of Mexico today will induce a gap wind event in Tehuantepec. See 
the special features section for further details.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Strong high pressure over the NW Atlantic supports NE gap winds 
through the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds across and downstream of 
Papagayo will reach near 30 kt early this morning, then maintain 
20-25 kt winds through the remaining weekend. Fresh northerly 
winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama through this evening. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

A broad surface ridge dominates the Pacific Ocean waters north 
of 17N. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near 
the ITCZ will support fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ, 
mainly west of 120W. A surface trough along 128W will support 
the continuation of these winds, and further enhance the winds 
to around 25 kt near 130W through Sat morning. Seas near the 
trough axis will range from 9 to 12 ft through Sat morning.

$$
Mundell


						
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